What does Intrade know about the GOP Primaries?

Intrade is a site used by political watchers to predict results. The site was built initially to predict markets but the technology has been used to predict everything from election results to public opinion on foreign affairs decisions. According to their website, “Intrade is a prediction market. What is a prediction market? It’s a market that allows you to make predictions on the outcome of hundreds of real-world events. Stock exchanges find the price of stocks, and futures markets find the price of commodities. Prediction markets find the probability of something happening – a predefined, uncertain future event.”

According to Intrade, the polls have been hit and miss, predicting a win for Santorum in Minnesota (where he currently leads with 44% of the vote compared to 26% For Paul, 17% for Romney and 12% for Gingrich (9% precincts reporting).

But it appears they’re getting it wrong in Colorado where Santorum leads with 50% of the vote to Gingrich’s and Romney’s 21% and Paul’s 9% (5% precincts reporting).

The night is still young and results could easily change, especially as more metro areas are included in the results.


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